Measuring Non-Probabilistic Uncertainty: A cognitive, logical and computational assessment of known and unknown unknowns

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MEASUR ING NON -PROBABILISTIC UNCERTAINTY A cognitive, logical and computational assessment of known and unknown unknowns Florian Ellsaesser Frankfurt School of Finance & Management Guido Fioretti University of Bologna Contact: [email removed] Abstract There are two reasons why uncertainty may not be adequately described by Probability Theory. The first one is due to unique or nearly -unique events, that either never realized or occu rred too seldom for frequencie s to be reliabl y measured . The second one arises when one fears that something may happen, that one is not even able to figure out, e.g., if one asks: ?Climate change, financial crises, pandemic, war, what next?? In both cases, simpl e one -to-one cognitive maps between available alternatives and possible consequences eventually melt down. However, such destructions reflect into the changing narratives of business executives, employees and other stakeholders in specific, ...

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• [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.05818