🔬

Measuring Non-Probabilistic Uncertainty: A cognitive, logical and computational assessment of known and unknown unknowns

📅 2022
technical research breakthrough
🔵 Rare

📖 Description

MEASUR ING NON -PROBABILISTIC UNCERTAINTY A cognitive, logical and computational assessment of known and unknown unknowns Florian Ellsaesser Frankfurt School of Finance & Management Guido Fioretti University of Bologna Contact: [email address redacted] Abstract There are two reasons why uncertainty may not be adequately described by Probability Theory. The first one is due to unique or nearly -unique events, that either never realized or occu rred too seldom for frequencie s to be reliabl y measured . The second one arises when one fears that something may happen, that one is not even able to figure out, e.g., if one asks: ?Climate change, financial crises, pandemic, war, what next?? In both cases, simpl e one -to-one cognitive maps between available alternatives and possible consequences eventually melt down. However, such destructions reflect into the changing narratives of business executives, employees and other stakeholders in specific, ...

📊 Game Impacts

Not verified in game

Which variables this event was proposed to move, and in which direction. The magnitudes are held in the corpus but are not shown here, because they have not been verified against the shipped game. They come from pdoom-data. They describe what an event was proposed to do, not what the shipped game does with it. Most events in the corpus are flavour: they are shown for colour and do not move any game variable. Only a small minority reach the systems below, and several of the variables listed here are not read by the game at all yet. Treat this table as a design proposal under review, not as a measurement of play. Corrections and arguments are welcome — the suggestion links at the foot of this page go straight to the data repo.

Variable Direction Condition
Research proposed: up Always
Papers proposed: up Always
Vibey Doom proposed: up Always

💭 Reactions

🔬 Safety Researcher Reaction: Not recorded
📰 Media Reaction: Not recorded
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🔗 Sources

🏷️ Event Metadata

Think this event's metadata could be improved? Category and tags describe the real-world event and are maintained in pdoom-data. Rarity, game impacts and p(doom) effects are game-mechanical values owned by pdoom1. Each link below goes to the repository that decides that field.

📁 Category Technical Research Breakthrough → Suggest different category
⭐ Rarity 🔵 Rare → Suggest different rarity
🏷️ Tags (0) → Suggest tag changes
📊 Game Impacts (3) 3 variable changes → Suggest impact changes
☢️ p(Doom) Impact Not recorded → Suggest p(doom) change
📝 General Metadata Year, description, reactions → Comprehensive review

🤝 Found an Issue?

This event data is sourced from the pdoom-data repository. If you notice errors or want to suggest improvements:

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