🔬

Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey

📅 2019
technical research breakthrough
🔵 Rare

📖 Description

Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey Ross Gruetzemacher, David Paradice, Kang Bok Lee Auburn University, Harbert College of Business, Department of Systems and Technology Abstract Transformative AI technologies have the potential to reshape critical aspects of society in the near future. In order to properly prepare policy initiatives for the arrival of such technologies accurate forecasts and timelines are necessary. A survey was administered to attendees of three AI conferences in 2018 (ICML, IJCAI and the HLAI conference). The survey included calibration questions, questions for estimating AI capabilities over the next decade, questions for forecasting five scenarios of transformative AI and questions concerning the impact of computational resources in AI research. Respondents indicated a median of 21.5% of human tasks (i.e., all tasks that humans are currently paid to do) can be feasibly automated now, and that this figure would rise to 40% in 5 years and 60% in 10...

📊 Game Impacts

Not verified in game

Which variables this event was proposed to move, and in which direction. The magnitudes are held in the corpus but are not shown here, because they have not been verified against the shipped game. They come from pdoom-data. They describe what an event was proposed to do, not what the shipped game does with it. Most events in the corpus are flavour: they are shown for colour and do not move any game variable. Only a small minority reach the systems below, and several of the variables listed here are not read by the game at all yet. Treat this table as a design proposal under review, not as a measurement of play. Corrections and arguments are welcome — the suggestion links at the foot of this page go straight to the data repo.

Variable Direction Condition
Research proposed: up Always
Papers proposed: up Always
Vibey Doom proposed: up Always

💭 Reactions

🔬 Safety Researcher Reaction: ⚠️ Placeholder - Needs Real Quote
"Notable work on AI safety"
📰 Media Reaction: ⚠️ Placeholder - Needs Real Quote
"Published in academic venue"
💡 Found a Real Quote? Suggest it here

🔗 Sources

🏷️ Event Metadata

Think this event's metadata could be improved? Category and tags describe the real-world event and are maintained in pdoom-data. Rarity, game impacts and p(doom) effects are game-mechanical values owned by pdoom1. Each link below goes to the repository that decides that field.

📁 Category Technical Research Breakthrough → Suggest different category
⭐ Rarity 🔵 Rare → Suggest different rarity
🏷️ Tags (0) → Suggest tag changes
📊 Game Impacts (3) 3 variable changes → Suggest impact changes
☢️ p(Doom) Impact No direct impact → Suggest p(doom) change
📝 General Metadata Year, description, reactions → Comprehensive review

🤝 Found an Issue?

This event data is sourced from the pdoom-data repository. If you notice errors or want to suggest improvements:

GitHub Issue (Preferred) 📧 Email (No GitHub)
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