Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey

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Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey Ross Gruetzemacher, David Paradice, Kang Bok Lee Auburn University, Harbert College of Business, Department of Systems and Technology Abstract Transformative AI technologies have the potential to reshape critical aspects of society in the near future. In order to properly prepare policy initiatives for the arrival of such technologies accurate forecasts and timelines are necessary. A survey was administered to attendees of three AI conferences in 2018 (ICML, IJCAI and the HLAI conference). The survey included calibration questions, questions for estimating AI capabilities over the next decade, questions for forecasting five scenarios of transformative AI and questions concerning the impact of computational resources in AI research. Respondents indicated a median of 21.5% of human tasks (i.e., all tasks that humans are currently paid to do) can be feasibly automated now, and that this figure would rise to 40% in 5 years and 60% in 10...

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• [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.08579