🔬

Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda

📅 2020
technical research breakthrough
🔵 Rare

📖 Description

Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda Ross Gruetzemacher*, Florian Dorner ? ? ? , Niko Bernaola-Alvarez ? ? ? , Charlie Giattino ? ? ? , David Manheim ? ** *Auburn University, ? ? ? Freie Universit?t Berlin, ? ? ? Universidad Polit?cnica de Madrid, ? ? ? University of Oxford, ? ** ? University of Haifa ABSTRACT: ? Forecasting AI progress is essential to reducing uncertainty in order to appropriately plan for research efforts on AI safety and AI governance. While this is generally considered to be an important topic, little work has been conducted on it and there is no published document that gives an objective overview of the field. Moreover, the field is very diverse and there is no published consensus regarding its direction. This paper describes the development of a research agenda for forecasting AI progress which ...

📊 Game Impacts

Not verified in game

Which variables this event was proposed to move, and in which direction. The magnitudes are held in the corpus but are not shown here, because they have not been verified against the shipped game. They come from pdoom-data. They describe what an event was proposed to do, not what the shipped game does with it. Most events in the corpus are flavour: they are shown for colour and do not move any game variable. Only a small minority reach the systems below, and several of the variables listed here are not read by the game at all yet. Treat this table as a design proposal under review, not as a measurement of play. Corrections and arguments are welcome — the suggestion links at the foot of this page go straight to the data repo.

Variable Direction Condition
Research proposed: up Always
Papers proposed: up Always
Vibey Doom proposed: up Always

💭 Reactions

🔬 Safety Researcher Reaction: ⚠️ Placeholder - Needs Real Quote
"Important contribution to the field"
📰 Media Reaction: ⚠️ Placeholder - Needs Real Quote
"Published in academic venue"
💡 Found a Real Quote? Suggest it here

🔗 Sources

🏷️ Event Metadata

Think this event's metadata could be improved? Category and tags describe the real-world event and are maintained in pdoom-data. Rarity, game impacts and p(doom) effects are game-mechanical values owned by pdoom1. Each link below goes to the repository that decides that field.

📁 Category Technical Research Breakthrough → Suggest different category
⭐ Rarity 🔵 Rare → Suggest different rarity
🏷️ Tags (0) → Suggest tag changes
📊 Game Impacts (3) 3 variable changes → Suggest impact changes
☢️ p(Doom) Impact No direct impact → Suggest p(doom) change
📝 General Metadata Year, description, reactions → Comprehensive review

🤝 Found an Issue?

This event data is sourced from the pdoom-data repository. If you notice errors or want to suggest improvements:

GitHub Issue (Preferred) 📧 Email (No GitHub)
← Back to All Events