📢

Reply to Eliezer on Biological Anchors

📅 2021
public awareness
⚪ Common
#ai

📖 Description

The ["biological anchors" method for forecasting transformative AI](https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-the-biological-anchors-method-in-a-nutshell/) is the biggest non-[trust-based](https://www.cold-takes.com/minimal-trust-investigations/#navigating-trust) input into my thinking about likely timelines for transformative AI. While I'm sympathetic to parts of [Eliezer Yudkowsky's recent post on it](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ax695frGJEzGxFBK4/biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-that-never-works), I overall disagree with the post, and think it's easy to get a misimpression of the "biological anchors" report (which I'll abbreviate as **"Bio Anchors"**) - and Open Philanthropy's take on it - by reading it.

📊 Game Impacts

Variable Change Condition
Research +10 Always

💭 Reactions

🔬 Safety Researcher Reaction: ⚠️ Placeholder - Needs Real Quote
"Provides general AI context"
📰 Media Reaction: ⚠️ Placeholder - Needs Real Quote
"Discussed in AI safety community"
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🔗 Sources

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