Prediction can be Outer Aligned at Optimum
📖 Description
This post argues that many prediction tasks are *outer aligned at optimum*. In particular, I think that the malignity of the universal prior should be treated as an inner alignment problem rather than an outer alignment problem. The main argument is entirely in the first section; treat the rest as appendices.
📊 Game Impacts
| Variable | Change | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| Research | +10 | Always |
| Vibey Doom | +5 | Always |
| Ethics Risk | -5 | Always |
💭 Reactions
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"Critical insights for the field"
"Critical insights for the field"
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