What 2026 looks like
📖 Description
This was written for the [Vignettes Workshop](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jusSrXEAsiqehBsmh/vignettes-workshop-ai-impacts).[[1]](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like-daniel-s-median-future?commentId=wL7FSxbsJs5EEZZEj) The goal is to write out a **detailed** future history ("trajectory") that is as realistic (to me) as I can currently manage, i.e. I'm not aware of any alternative trajectory that is similarly detailed and clearly **more** plausible to me. The methodology is roughly: Write a future history of 2022. Condition on it, and write a future history of 2023. Repeat for 2024, 2025, etc. (I'm posting 2022-2026 now so I can get feedback that will help me write 2027+. I intend to keep writing until the story reaches singularity/extinction/utopia/etc.)
📊 Game Impacts
| Variable | Change | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| Research | +10 | Always |
| Vibey Doom | +5 | Always |
| Ethics Risk | -5 | Always |
💭 Reactions
"This is a significant contribution to alignment research"
"Discussed in AI safety community"
🤝 Found an Issue?
This event data is sourced from the pdoom-data repository. If you notice errors or want to suggest improvements:
GitHub Issue (Preferred) 📧 Email (No GitHub)