📜

Two-year update on my personal AI timelines

📅 2022
policy development
⚪ Common
#ai #ai timelines

📖 Description

I worked on my [draft report on biological anchors for forecasting AI timelines](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines) mainly between ~May 2019 (three months after the release of GPT-2) and ~Jul 2020 (a month after the release of GPT-3), and posted it on LessWrong in Sep 2020 after an internal review process. At the time, my bottom line estimates from the bio anchors modeling exercise [were](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cCJjzZaJ7ATbq8N2fvhmsDOUWdm7t3uSSXv6bD0E_GM/edit#heading=h.jhjg6byruuun):[[1]](#fn-LnaAQkuHYCr3b3oQ7-1)

📊 Game Impacts

Variable Change Condition
Research +10 Always
Vibey Doom +2 Always
Ethics Risk -5 Always

💭 Reactions

🔬 Safety Researcher Reaction: ⚠️ Placeholder - Needs Real Quote
"Useful research for the community"
📰 Media Reaction: ⚠️ Placeholder - Needs Real Quote
"Discussed in AI safety community"
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🔗 Sources

🏷️ Event Metadata

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📁 Category Policy Development → Suggest different category
⭐ Rarity ⚪ Common → Suggest different rarity
🏷️ Tags (2) ai, ai timelines → Suggest tag changes
📊 Game Impacts (3) 3 variable changes → Suggest impact changes
☢️ p(Doom) Impact No direct impact → Suggest p(doom) change
📝 General Metadata Year, description, reactions → Comprehensive review

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