📢

Radical Probabilism

📅 2020
public awareness
⚪ Common
#bayes' theorem #conservation of expected evidence #epistemology #logical induction #probabilistic reasoning #probability & statistics #problem of old evidence #radical probabilism #rationality

📖 Description

*This is an expanded version of* [*my talk*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZM63n353vh2ag7z4p/radical-probabilism-transcript)*. I assume a high degree of familiarity with Bayesian probability theory.*

📊 Game Impacts

Variable Change Condition
Research +10 Always
Vibey Doom +2 Always
Ethics Risk -5 Always

💭 Reactions

🔬 Safety Researcher Reaction: ⚠️ Placeholder - Needs Real Quote
"Useful research for the community"
📰 Media Reaction: ⚠️ Placeholder - Needs Real Quote
"Discussed in AI safety community"
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🔗 Sources

🏷️ Event Metadata

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📁 Category Public Awareness → Suggest different category
⭐ Rarity ⚪ Common → Suggest different rarity
🏷️ Tags (9) bayes' theorem, conservation of expected evidence, epistemology, logical induction, probabilistic reasoning, probability & statistics, problem of old evidence, radical probabilism, rationality → Suggest tag changes
📊 Game Impacts (3) 3 variable changes → Suggest impact changes
☢️ p(Doom) Impact No direct impact → Suggest p(doom) change
📝 General Metadata Year, description, reactions → Comprehensive review

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