CURRENT STATUS
P(doom) Base
12.1%
Exponential trajectory
2027 Projection
36%
Current trajectory
💹 AI STOCKS
NVIDIA (NVDA)
$201
+34% YTD
Microsoft (MSFT)
$542
+28% YTD
Alphabet (GOOGL)
$165
+32% YTD
Meta (META)
$584
+35% YTD
💰 AI SAFETY INVESTMENT
AI Compute by Region
Current Situation Analysis
As of October 2025, AI training compute has scaled exponentially with a doubling time of just 5.6 months (Epoch AI). The latest frontier model, GPT-5, was trained at 5×10²⁶ FLOPS — representing a 1592× increase over GPT-3 from 2020.
Expert consensus on P(doom) ranges from 5% (median) to over 95% for pessimists like Eliezer Yudkowsky. The current trajectory suggests P(doom) could reach 36% by 2027 if scaling continues unchecked (PauseAI compilation).
Three major factors could reduce risk: increased AI safety research funding, international coordination on development pace, and stronger regulatory frameworks. Current levels remain insufficient relative to the scale of the challenge (Anthropic safety research).
EXPERT CONSENSUS
E. Yudkowsky
>95%
MIRI Founder
Y. Bengio
50%
Nobel Laureate
D. Amodei
25%
Anthropic CEO
G. Hinton
10-20%
Nobel Laureate
Survey Median
5%
1000+ researchers
📊 PREDICTION MARKETS
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🐱 CAT CAM
Status: Monitoring